Press Releases

Economists Predict Strong Industrial Growth In Second Half

Reports from prominent business journals and trade publications seem to agree on the status of the U.S. economy. It looks good!

According to a recent issue of the "Wall Street Journal", economists predict a steady expansion of the U.S. economy during the second half of this year, partly due to industrial growth and a substantial decrease in unemployment.

Diane Swonk, the well respected chief economist of Bank One Corp. Companies, in Chicago, likewise, agrees with some 54 other economists, that the economy is in a healthy growth pattern.

Forecasters aren't too concerned about two possible trends — inflation and increasing interest rates. High oil prices is one key variable. It seems we'll never see gasoline at traditional very low prices, compared to the world market. With increasing global demands, especially from China and India, oil prices will continue to be higher. There is an expected seasonal decrease in prices late this summer and early autumn.

Other healthy indicators are the fact that the sales of semiconductors and other high-tech products are surging forward.

While attending the AD-TECH Show yesterday, industry leaders all were predicting a positive outlook. They also predicted revolutionary technological changes in the communications industry. These changes will effect every industry.

The shipping and transportation industries also have revived substantially. So do not complain about all the trucks on the highway. Remember every truck plays an important role in our economy.

Even some of the more pessimistic economists have had to agree that the economy will remain on course.

In summary, the GDP is expected to grow at a rate of 4.4% and personal income is expected to increase from 2.3% to 7% by year's end.

More Economic News

The Institute for Supply Management, an association of supply managers, reported that a recent poll of purchasing agents at some 400 industrial companies, confirms that the economy is on course. Rising prices worried some factory managers.

The Labor Department reported last Friday that higher paying jobs are increasing. Over the weekend, a private consulting firm, explained that, because of new employment opportunities and increasing demand for qualified personnel, there already is a large number of management personnel preparing "to jump ship".

The July 2004 issue of "Modern Plastics" magazine, a leading trade publication for the plastics industry, likewise is optimistic.

Some interesting reading is "Competition is fierce, opportunities abound." Trade shows for the plastics industry, both domestic and international have been successful. Equipment sales to foreign buyers have been increasing. Employment in this industry are among the highest paying jobs, averaging 13% to 16% higher than the U.S. average.

"Circuits Assembly", the trade journal for surface mount and electronics assembly, has published a report issued by the IPC Technology Market Research Council (TMRC) May meeting, "orders are up, but modest for some sectors, with intense price pressures still reigning supreme". According to one report at this meeting, the "world electronic equipment production is headed up. It is estimated at U.S. $1.199 trillion for 2004, a hefty U.S. $100 billion jump from 2000's U.S. $1.090 trillion.

The magazine summarizes, "Both the computer and semiconductor industries have resumed modest growth with PCs and cell phones actually enjoying robust growth."